Donald Trump has again challenged the credibility of national opinion polls, claiming they significantly understate his true level of public support as he completes his first year back in the White House. While the president insists his approval rating is far higher than reported, most independent polling averages continue to show him struggling with a sizable portion of the electorate.
Trump recently shared a post from the Trafalgar Group on Truth Social suggesting that more than half of voters approve of his performance. He went further by asserting that his actual approval stands at around 64 percent, pointing to what he described as a strong economy, low inflation, a secure border, and renewed military strength. Trafalgar, a polling firm often viewed as right-leaning, does place Trump slightly above the 50 percent mark in its late December survey of likely voters.
However, broader polling averages present a less favorable picture. Aggregators such as Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin show Trump’s approval declining steadily over the past year, settling in the low 40s by December. RealClearPolitics similarly places his approval in the mid-40s, with disapproval consistently above 50 percent. Other national surveys, including a recent AtlasIntel poll, indicate even deeper negative numbers, with Trump’s approval dipping below 40 percent.
Trump has long argued that polls fail to capture his real support, a claim echoed by some polling experts who acknowledge that measuring his popularity is uniquely difficult. Researchers at the Pew Research Center note that people who participate in surveys are often not fully representative of the electorate, and those skeptical of institutions are less likely to respond. Nate Silver has also acknowledged that Trump’s support has often been underestimated, due in part to response bias and turnout assumptions.
Despite these methodological challenges, analysts caution against assuming that Trump’s approval is dramatically higher than most averages suggest. Approval ratings measure job performance, not electoral strength, and polling errors do not always break in one direction.
The political implications are significant as the 2026 midterm elections approach. Trump’s approval rating will heavily influence Republican prospects, especially with control of Congress narrowly divided. Recent Democratic gains in down-ballot races have reinforced the idea that Trump’s personal support does not automatically translate into broad Republican success.
The White House continues to defend its record, arguing that economic conditions have improved and that voters will eventually recognize the administration’s achievements. Still, Trump’s approval remains deeply polarized, with strong backing from supporters and entrenched opposition from critics.
As the midterms draw closer, Trump’s standing with the public is expected to remain volatile. Polls—whether embraced or dismissed by the president—will continue to shape the political narrative, influence campaign strategies, and serve as a key indicator of how Americans are responding to his second term in office.
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