Russia and Belarus launch big military exercise that fueled Western concerns

 

Russia and Belarus have launched their long-planned Zapad-2025 (“West-2025”) military exercises, involving thousands of troops on both sides of the border. The drills, running through Tuesday, are meant to highlight the two countries’ deep defence ties and to demonstrate Moscow’s military strength as it enters the fourth year of its war in Ukraine.

The timing and location have drawn particular attention from NATO and neighbouring countries. Earlier in the week, several Russian drones entered Polish airspace, prompting fears that the conflict in Ukraine could spill over into NATO territory. Although Moscow denied deliberately targeting Poland, European leaders called the incident a provocation. This has made Zapad-2025 especially sensitive for countries like Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, which share borders with Belarus.

Belarus initially announced that about 13,000 troops would take part near its western frontier but later said the number had been reduced and most exercises moved deeper inside the country, especially near the city of Barysaw. Russia’s Defence Ministry added that parts of the drills are also being conducted on Russian territory and in the Baltic and Barents seas. According to Belarusian Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin, troops are practising the planning and use of Russian nuclear weapons, including the new nuclear-capable Oreshnik intermediate-range missiles Moscow plans to station in Belarus later this year.

Belarus has formally invited OSCE member states and NATO military attachés to observe the drills, signalling openness to international scrutiny. At the same time, President Alexander Lukashenko — who has ruled for over three decades — has recently tried to ease tensions with the West by releasing political prisoners and speaking directly with Western leaders. Last month he held a rare phone call with Donald Trump and oversaw a prisoner-release deal that led the United States to lift some sanctions on Belarus’ national airline.

For NATO allies, however, the spectre of Russian forces operating so close to their borders — combined with memories of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine following similar drills — makes Zapad-2025 a fresh reminder of how quickly “exercises” can shift into real-world conflict.