Does Israel face a 'South Africa moment' over Gaza?

Israel is under growing diplomatic and public pressure over its war in Gaza, and many people are comparing it to South Africa in the final years of apartheid. That “South Africa moment” refers to the point when political isolation, economic sanctions, and cultural or sporting boycotts combined to force a policy shift.

There are some clear parallels. A number of European countries are preparing to recognise Palestine as a state, governments like Belgium and Spain have already announced sanctions and trade restrictions, and Norway’s sovereign wealth fund has begun divesting from Israeli companies. Cultural and sporting boycotts are also emerging, with threats of withdrawal from Eurovision, Hollywood petitions against Israeli film festivals, and protests at major sporting events. On top of that, the International Criminal Court has issued a warrant for Prime Minister Netanyahu, limiting his travel. All of these moves signal rising costs to Israel’s international standing.

But there are also big differences. Israel still enjoys strong support from the United States, its most important ally, which shields it from the kind of comprehensive sanctions South Africa faced. Its economy is highly diversified and deeply integrated with Western technology and security sectors, making full-scale embargoes politically and economically harder to implement. Within the EU and other blocs, many governments — notably Germany, Italy and Hungary — continue to resist sweeping punitive measures.

This means Israel is not yet at the point of complete isolation. Some observers call the current situation a “preamble” to a South Africa moment rather than the moment itself. Whether it crosses that line will depend on how far governments, businesses and cultural institutions go beyond symbolic statements to concrete restrictions, and whether domestic or U.S. support begins to erode.

For now, Israel’s international reputation is at its lowest in decades, but the decisive tipping point — the level of global pressure that forced Pretoria to abandon apartheid — has not been reached.