Oval Office meetings are rarely without risk—but this one,
between two wealthy, golf-loving politicians with hardline views on
immigration, could turn into a political minefield or an unexpected alliance.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is set to meet U.S. President Donald Trump on
Thursday, and he’ll need to tread carefully. Past visitors like Ukraine’s and
South Africa’s leaders have learned how quickly these encounters can go
off-script.
Trump’s disdain for “bad, very bad” Germans is well known,
and Merz is likely to be pressed—under the bright lights of television
cameras—about his February election-night remarks, in which he said Europe
should “achieve independence from the USA” and called Trump’s administration
“largely indifferent to the fate of Europe.”
Merz must also avoid stumbling into controversy on several
sensitive topics: Germany’s automotive exports, its contributions to NATO and
Ukraine, and perhaps most delicately, the Trump administration’s overtures
toward the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), now the country’s
second-largest party.
Still, there are early indications that Merz and Trump might
find common ground. The new German chancellor is openly pro-American and has
promised to shift German policy in ways that may appeal to Trump—including a
dramatic increase in defense spending and stricter immigration controls. The
visit also coincides with European efforts to ease tensions in the
transatlantic trade dispute by offering a deal on car regulations.
Adding to the optimism, Trump has extended Merz the rare
courtesy of staying at Blair House, the official White House guest residence.
German officials see this as a sign that Merz may not be walking into an
ambush.
A senior White House official, speaking anonymously,
downplayed any expectations of fireworks. “It’s just another foreign leader
visit,” the official said.
Merz and Trump have already spoken several times by phone,
and the German leader has invited Trump to visit his grandfather’s hometown in
Germany. Merz seemed pleased with their rapport. “The first call went well,” he
said. “We found we have some acquaintances in common. I congratulated him on
the American pope and we talked about Chicago—because that’s where the pope is
from. I’ve been there a lot professionally.” Mimicking Trump’s voice, Merz
added: “‘Oh, you know Chicago? Great city! Really great city.’ That was the
tone.”
That early chemistry encouraged Merz’s spokesman, Stefan
Kornelius, who expressed hope the good personal dynamic would carry into
Thursday’s meeting. Still, Kornelius hinted at lingering caution: “The dynamics
in the White House are, shall we say, fluid.”
Berlin knows how quickly things can go sideways. Trump once
used a visit by South Africa’s president to make unsubstantiated claims of
“genocide” against white farmers. In another instance, he and Vice President JD
Vance publicly disparaged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a time
of war.
Vance’s remarks at February’s Munich Security
Conference—days before Merz’s party won a surprise election—set the tone. He
accused European leaders of caving to public pressure and criticized Germany’s
refusal to cooperate with the AfD. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio joined
the chorus, accusing German intelligence of practicing “tyranny in disguise”
for designating the AfD as extremist.
Vance’s comments stunned Merz, who used his election-night
address to question NATO’s future and advocate for Germany’s inclusion in a
French-British nuclear shield.
Despite that rocky beginning, Berlin-Washington ties have
since improved.
Merz’s government is actively courting Trump. After years of
being lambasted by Trump for low military spending and threats to pull 12,000
U.S. troops from Germany, Merz has vowed to make the country Europe’s top
conventional military power. His administration is even discussing a dramatic
leap toward spending 5 percent of GDP on defense—up from just over 2 percent.
He’s also walked back his earlier calls for “independence”
from the U.S. During a recent visit to NATO headquarters in Brussels, Merz said
the Trump administration’s approach to Europe had “clearly changed” in response
to Europe’s defense efforts, adding that he now feels “more optimistic” about
NATO’s future. “The United States is indispensable to Europe’s security now and
for the foreseeable future,” he concluded.
Washington appears to be listening. At a recent defense
summit in Singapore, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth cited Germany as a
model for other countries, joking: “Hard to believe I’m saying this.”
And on the AfD issue, Merz may take some comfort in knowing
that Elon Musk—the most vocal administration supporter of the party—is no
longer part of the government.
While Trump’s team has relatively little at stake, for Merz,
the Oval Office meeting could be pivotal. The future of European defense, unity
on Ukraine, and a resolution to the EU-U.S. trade clash may all hinge on how
well he and Trump connect.
Germany is arriving with trade incentives. Brussels is
proposing to loosen its strict rules on autonomous vehicles to defuse the
tariff tensions, according to a source familiar with the talks.
But Merz’s inner circle doesn’t expect technical details to
make or break the meeting. As conservative foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt
put it: “He’ll bring only a few notes—if any—and rely on his instinct for
finding the right tone.”
Merz himself is under no illusions. “Anyone who’s seen Trump
on TV knows how these conversations can go.”
Comments
Post a Comment